Weekly fundamental outlook

5 Mar 2018 04:06 PM

This week will be filled with many important events and economic data which will of course have a significant impact on the movements of global markets. It began with the Eurozone. Italian voters cast their votes in the parliamentary elections, but none of the political forces got a majority to rule alone. In Germany, members of the Socialist Democratic Party voted in favor of a renewal of the grand coalition with Merkel, paving the way for a fourth term to her after six months of political uncertainty.

Highlights of the week's economic data:

Tuesday - Australian Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.5% for the 17th consecutive meeting. Most expectations are that the Bank's monetary policy will remain unchanged until the end of this year. The Australian economy is at a steady pace so far, High household debt and insufficient wage growth still a source of concern for policy makers.

Wednesday - Canadian Interest Rate Decision

Australia's economic growth data for the last quarter of 2017 is expected to be released early on Wednesday, and the economy is expected to slow slightly as GDP growth could grow by 0.5% after growing by 0.6% in the third quarter of the same year.

Eurozone growth data for the fourth quarter of 2017 will also be released. The data is expected to come in line with the third quarter data, so the economy to grow by 0.6% on monthly basis and by 2.7% yoy.

On the same day, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and it is expected to remain unchanged at 1.25%, but concern remains for policymakers about NAFTA renegotiation developments on the one hand and the proposed new tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports on the other hand, as Canada is  a major supplier to the United States.

Thursday - ECB interest rate decision

The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged at this week's meeting, but markets remain optimistic that the ECB will make new decisions this year amid growing Eurozone growth that could prompt the bank to ease or set a date for ending the monetary stimulus program.

Friday - US Employment Data / Japanese Interest Rate Decision

Early in the morning on Friday, attention will be focused on the Bank of Japan and no change in its monetary policy is expected. Markets will await comments by Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of BoJ on the recent gains of the Japanese yen.

Also, the markets will be on a date of new figures from the US labor market, which is still showing strength amid expectations of the economy adding about 204,000 jobs in February and unemployment rates falling to 17-year lows to 4%, but most of the focus will be on wages data, which is expected to rise by 0.3% on a monthly basis and by 2.8% yoy after rising by 2.9% in January, the largest in eight and a half years.

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