Weekly fundamental outlook

11 Dec 2017 03:17 PM

This week is full of important events and economic data releases, most notably the Fed meeting, as well as meetings of a number of other major central banks. With little else left till the end of 2017, the markets will be on the lookout for what will come within the next few days.

British inflation data released on Tuesday

The UK Consumer Price Index is due to be released and the index has stabilized at 3% in the last two months and is expected to rise again in November by the same 3%. There have been recent increases in UK inflation figures due to weakness of the pound following the vote to leave the EU.

Attention is on Wednesday towards the Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates to 1.50% for the third time this year. There will also be a press conference for Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen. Economic projections for growth and interest rates will also be released, the last projections referred to 3 hikes in 2018, and it is expected to stay at 3 on Wednesday.

Wednesday's meeting will be the last under Yellen’s leadership, whose term expires in February. She will be replaced by Jerome Powell.

Also on this day US inflation data will be released as the Core CPI is expected to rise by 1.8% in November, unchanged from the previous month.

The vote on the new tax bill will be in sight as the December 22 deadline approaches, and this law will be the first legislative victory for Donald Trump since he entered the White House earlier this year.

Three central banks announce interest rate decisions on Thursday

Australian employment data will be released on Thursday morning and the economy is expected to continue adding 19.2 jobs in November, after adding 3,700 jobs in October.

The Swiss National Bank is due to announce its interest rate decision and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at -0.75%. The quarterly monetary policy assessment will also be issued. It is expected that the Bank will continue to adhere to its policy of intervening in the currency market when necessary.

Also, the Bank of England is set to keep its policy unchanged as uncertainty surrounds Brexit negotiations, leaving interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

Attention will be focused on the weekend EU summit in Brussels, waiting for any news on the progress of the negotiations after Britain reached an agreement with the European Union on Friday, allowing the transition to the next stage of negotiations.

The third bank to watch will be the European Central Bank, and no change in monetary policy is expected. Inflation figures in the euro area are still far from the target and the bank decided to ease bond purchases in October until the end of September next year.

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