Weekly fundamental outlook

13 Nov 2017 12:28 PM

After a week that was lacking in much important economic figures and events, this week we are back with many economic data releases and indicators that the markets are waiting for, as well as many important announcements from several central bankers. The US tax reform plan is advancing relatively slowly amid reports that it would be delayed because of the difference between plans represented by the Republicans to the House of Representative and the Senate.


Monday, may see weak trading
Today's economic calendar is almost devoid of important data and the focus of the markets will be with Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, who is scheduled to speak about monetary policy at the University of Zurich, Switzerland and is expected to receive questions from attendees.


Tuesday, British inflation figures are the most prominent
Inflation figures exceeded the Bank of England's goal to stabilize at 3% in September, prompting the Bank to raise interest rates for the first time in 10 years at its last meeting. The CPI is expected to see further gains in October by 3.1%. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, said inflation would hit its peak in October.


Also on this day, a number of central bankers from around the world are taking part in ECB discussions in Frankfurt, with Mario Draghi, Mark Carney, Haruhiko Kuroda and Janet Yellen speaking.


In the Eurozone, GDP figures will be released for the third quarter of 2017, the initial reading of the index, and the Eurozone economy is expected to grow by 2.5% YoY and 0.6% QoQ.


Wednesday, markets are waiting for inflation figures from the United States
The continuing improvement in the US labor market has not been reflected in the inflation figures so far. The Core CPI has risen by 1.7% recently after having exceeded 2% at the beginning of the year. Expectations remain that interest rates will be raised next month; however, weak inflation could undermine expectations of three rate hikes next year.


Thursday, the role comes on inflation figures from the euro area
Within the first trading hours of the day, employment data will be released from the Australian economy. The labour market is expected to continue to show improvement, adding about 15,000 jobs in October, while unemployment would rise to 5.6%. As in the US, improvement in the Australian labour market has not reflected in the inflation figures so far, which makes the Reserve Bank of Australia likely to keep interest rates unchanged so far.


Inflation data in the euro zone will also be released. The consumer price index is expected to rise by 1.4% YoY in October, and the core index is expected to slow to 0.9% after rising by 1.1% in September.


Friday, Draghi speech and Canadian inflation figures
Mario Draghi, the ECB governor, is scheduled to speak in a speech entitled "Europe is entering a new era - how are opportunities being seized?" at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. Also, inflation data will be released in Canada for October.

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