After a week full of economic releases from the US. Another week comes in with many key economic figures and events, which likely to have a notable impact on the markets.
December Rate Hike Probabilities
At the end of last week, we all saw the notable disappointment from the US economic releases, especially those were released on Friday, including inflation and retail sales.
The US inflation came in with a disappointment, rising by less than expected in September on MoM basis, while the YoY showed some slowing down. Moreover, the Retail Sales figures were mixed. Yet, the core data showed a notable improvement.
Despite these figures, the market remain uncertain about the possibility of a 25bps rate hike in December and such uncertainty is likely to continue throughout the week.
Calm Day on Monday
The first day of the week comes in with few economic releases, which likely to have a slight impact on the markets including China’s inflation data.
During the European session, we will be focusing on EU Trade Balance, which set to rise to 20.B, while the German WPI is set to grow by 0.4%.
As for the US Session, we will be focusing on two datasets, including the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Federal Budget Balance late at night.
Inflation Day on Tuesday
Tuesday is expected to be the busiest day of the week, including the Asian, European and the US Session.
In Asia, we will be waiting for New Zealand inflation, which set to rise by 0.4%. In addition, we will be following the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
During the European Session, all eyes will be on the UK inflation figures, which is expected to show further acceleration. CPI is expected to rise to 3.0% and the Core CPI may stabilize at 2.7%. Yet, both are above the Bank of England target, which may force the BOE to start raising rate sooner than later.
Furthermore, we will be watching the Final data of the CPI and Core CPI from the EU, which set to remain unrevised.
Jobs on Wednesday and Thursday
During the European session, eyes will turn toward the UK, as we will be watching the Jobs Report for the month of September. Estimates are stable, including 2.1% Average Earnings and the unemployment rate at 4.3%, while the Claimant Count Change is expected to rise by 3.2K.
Another busy day on Thursday in Asia as we will be focusing on Australia’s Jobs Report in addition to China’s key data, including the GDP, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales.
Geopolitics Uncertainty Is Here To Stay
For the past few weeks, the markets have been ignoring the latest geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea.
Earlier this weekend, reports are showing that North Korea is getting ready to conduct a new missile test, that can reach the west coast.
Yet, such tensions is likely to have a limited impact on the markets, especially if there is no significant reaction by the US or its allies toward North Korea. As long as there is no new actions, global equities are likely to ignore the current tensions.
Edited by:
Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury
Market Analyst
